Researcher Verification Kit

Independent, reproducible verification of the BRETT v4.2.0 earthquake prediction engine. Run our test harness to validate accuracy across 33 seismic zones against real USGS data.

Public API • No Authentication • CORS Enabled

Download Test Harness

The Python verification suite tests across all major seismic zones, calculates accuracy at three tolerance levels, and generates institutional reports with confidence intervals.

🐍Python Test Harness.py 📋Requirements.txt 📖README.md

Quick Start

# Install dependencies
pip install -r requirements.txt

# Quick test (5 zones, 2 time periods)
python3 regenisis_verification.py --quick

# Full verification (33 zones, all periods)
python3 regenisis_verification.py

# Report from existing data
python3 regenisis_verification.py --report-only

Public API Documentation

Historical Backtesting API

GETPublic

https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/backtest

Parameters

lat✅Latitude (-90 to 90)

lng✅Longitude (-180 to 180)

start✅Start date (YYYY-MM-DD)

end✅End date (YYYY-MM-DD, must be past)

name—Location name label

radiusKm—Search radius (default: 500, max: 1000)

minMag—Minimum magnitude (default: 4.0)

tolerance—Magnitude tolerance (default: 1.5)

Example

curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/backtest  ?lat=35.7&lng=139.7  &start=2023-01-01  &end=2024-01-01  &name=Japan"

Response

{
  "location": { "name": "Japan" },
  "accuracy_tolerance_1_5": 87.3,
  "accuracy_tolerance_1_0": 71.2,
  "accuracy_tolerance_0_5": 48.6,
  "total_events_tested": 127,
  "data_source": "USGS"
}

Prediction Ledger API

GETPublic

https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/ledger

Parameters

statusPENDING, CONFIRMED, REFUTED, NO_EVENT, ALL

formatjson (default) or csv

regionFilter by region name (partial match)

pagePage number (default: 1)

limitRecords per page (max: 200)

sortcreatedAt, verifiedAt, magnitude, accuracy

orderasc or desc

Examples

# All predictions (JSON)
curl https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/ledger

# Confirmed only
curl https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/ledger?status=CONFIRMED

# Download as CSV
curl https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/predictions/ledger?format=csv

⚡

Unified Volcanic-Earthquake Engine

Two-State Eruption Model — Resonance × Trigger Activation

NEW

🧠 The Core Insight (Nicolas's Two-State Model)

Volcanoes don't erupt on a schedule. They erupt when an earthquake shatters the conduit. This engine monitors BOTH conditions in real-time:

State 1: RESONANCE

Volcanic engine output (0-100%). Is the magma fluid? Is pressure building? (Continuous)

State 2: TRIGGER

Earthquake D-value crosses threshold → sigmoid gate opens. Has a quake destabilized the chamber? (Binary/sigmoid)

Unified probability combines resonance output with seismic trigger analysis
through a proprietary activation function.

Status transitions:
  DORMANT → HOT_MONITORING → IMMINENT → ERUPTION_LIKELY
     ↑                          ↓
     └── ELEVATED ←─────────────┘  (72hr window expires)

🏔️ Volcano-Specific Fragility Curves NEW

Not all volcanoes are equal. Each has its own "fragility curve" based on chamber depth, crust type, and eruptive history. The threshold is now auto-calculated per volcano.

Threshold is auto-calculated per volcano based on:
  - Chamber depth
  - Crust type (oceanic, continental, caldera, etc.)
  - Eruptive history frequency

Lower threshold = more fragile volcano = easier to trigger

Kilauea

3km · Oceanic

T=28

VERY FRAGILE

Etna

8km · Continental

T=42

MODERATE

Fuji

12km · Thick

T=58

STURDY

Yellowstone

10km · Caldera

T=62

VERY STURDY

💡 Use &threshold=XX to manually override the auto-calculated threshold for custom analysis. Omit the parameter to use the volcano's natural fragility curve. 20 major volcanoes profiled.

GET https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/unified

lat*Latitude (-90 to 90)

lng*Longitude (-180 to 180)

nameVolcano name (enables auto-threshold from fragility profile)

thresholdManual override (auto-calculated per volcano if omitted)

lookback_daysEarthquake lookback days (1-90, default: 30)

radius_kmEarthquake search radius (50-500, default: 300)

daysForecast days (1-30, default: 7)

Example Requests

# Marapi — auto-threshold ~38 (FRAGILE)
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/unified?lat=-0.38&lng=100.47&name=Marapi"

# Kilauea — auto-threshold ~28 (VERY FRAGILE)
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/unified?lat=19.42&lng=-155.29&name=Kilauea"

# Yellowstone — auto-threshold ~62 (VERY STURDY)
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/unified?lat=44.43&lng=-110.67&name=Yellowstone"

# Etna — manual override to 35
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/unified?lat=37.75&lng=14.99&name=Etna&threshold=35"

Eruption Status States

DORMANTLow resonance, no triggers — system quiescent

HOT_MONITORINGHigh resonance, awaiting earthquake trigger

ELEVATEDTrigger detected but 72hr window may have passed

IMMINENTHigh resonance + active trigger — eruption window OPEN (0-72hr)

ERUPTION_LIKELYPeak resonance + multiple strong triggers — conditions fully met

Response Includes

🏔️ Volcano-specific fragility profile + auto-threshold

⚡ Unified eruption probability + urgency score

🌋 Full resonance state + daily forecast

🔗 Primary trigger earthquake with formula

📐 Sigmoid activation curve at threshold

🔄 State transition table with conditions

🌋

Volcanic Engine API

Live volcanic forecasting with full calculation breakdown + earthquake trigger analysis

Live Volcanic Forecast

Returns volcanic eruption probability forecast with earthquake destabilization analysis from real USGS data.

GET https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/engine

lat*Latitude (-90 to 90)

lng*Longitude (-180 to 180)

nameVolcano/location name

daysForecast days (1-90, default: 21)

Example Requests

# Marapi (Indonesia) — currently high activity
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/engine?lat=-0.38&lng=100.47&name=Marapi"

# Kilauea (Hawaii) — 30 day forecast
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/engine?lat=19.42&lng=-155.29&name=Kilauea&days=30"

# Etna (Italy)
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/engine?lat=37.75&lng=14.99&name=Etna"

Volcanic Historical Backtest

Monthly volcanic predictions vs actual events with earthquake-trigger correlation per month. Tests the theory: eruptions need a seismic trigger to destabilize the chamber.

GET https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/historical

lat*Latitude (-90 to 90)

lng*Longitude (-180 to 180)

start*Start date (YYYY-MM-DD)

end*End date (YYYY-MM-DD, must be past)

nameVolcano/location name

radiusKmSearch radius (50-500, default: 300)

Example Requests

# Marapi 2024 backtest
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/historical?lat=-0.38&lng=100.47&start=2024-01-01&end=2025-01-01&name=Marapi"

# Kilauea 2024
curl "https://earthpulse.abacusai.app/api/volcanic/historical?lat=19.42&lng=-155.29&start=2024-01-01&end=2024-12-31&name=Kilauea"

🔗 Earthquake Trigger Hypothesis (Nicolas's Theory)

Actual surface eruptions require an earthquake trigger event to destabilize the magma chamber/pipe. Without a seismic trigger, even high-resonance volcanic systems may not erupt. The API calculates destabilization potential for each nearby earthquake using:

Destabilization potential is calculated using:
  - Seismic energy release (Gutenberg-Richter relation)
  - Distance attenuation from earthquake to volcano
  - Depth coupling between earthquake focus and magma chamber

Risk thresholds: NEGLIGIBLE (<10) → LOW (10-25) → MODERATE (25-45) → HIGH (45-70) → CRITICAL (>70)

Response Includes:

🔴 Space weather factors

🔵 Earth dynamics factors

🟠 Volcanic resonance analysis

🟡 Chamber pressure & gas analysis

🔵 Submarine adjustments (v4.2)

🟢 Combined risk score

🟣 Eruption probability & VEI

💥 Earthquake trigger analysis

Expected Output

Console Output

============================================================
REGENISIS COSMOLOGY — Independent Verification Suite
============================================================
Tests: 165 | Zones: 33 | Periods: 5

📍 Japan (35.7, 139.7)
  [1/165] Full Year 2023 (2023-01-01 → 2024-01-01)
    ✓ Events: 127, Acc: 87.3% (±1.5)
  ...

============================================================
VERIFICATION SUMMARY
============================================================
Global Accuracy (±1.5): 87.3%
Global Accuracy (±1.0): 71.2%
Global Accuracy (±0.5): 48.6%
Weighted Accuracy:      89.1%
vs Random Baseline:     +12.4%
95% CI:                 ±3.2%
============================================================

Generated Files

verification_reports/
├── consolidated_report.json
├── verification_report.md
├── all_backtest_results.csv
└── ledger_snapshot_2026-04-10.json

regenisis_verification.db  (SQLite)

What Gets Validated

✓ 33 seismic zones worldwide

✓ Multiple time periods (2020–2024)

✓ Three tolerance levels (±0.5, ±1.0, ±1.5)

✓ Weighted accuracy by event count

✓ Baseline comparison vs random chance

✓ 95% confidence intervals

✓ Forward ledger tracking

Methodology & Transparency

No data leakage — each prediction uses only prior month's data as context

Three tolerance levels — ±0.5, ±1.0, ±1.5 magnitude

USGS source of truth — all verifications link to USGS event pages

Immutable ledger — predictions timestamped before events, never deleted

Reproducible — anyone can run the same test harness

Baseline comparison — improvement calculated over random chance

View Live Ledger →🐍 Download Test Harness